At least 1,5 to 2 billions of dollars will be spent by investors over the next three years. Each of the companies licensed to look for shale gas in Poland has to spend approx. 15 billion dollars to perform one full drill.

 

This level of expenses is confirmed by the representatives of companies, that are already drilling in Poland. They admit that fulfilling their license responsibilities will be costly. Each licensed company has to make at least two bore holes, usually within three years. And making a vertical hole is not enough, they also have to perform the so called fracking operations and some horizontal driling. These works allow for a more precise appraisal of the deposit’s potential.

 

The minister of environment has awarded more than 70 licenses so far, so even assuming that not everyone will fulfil their duties, there may be as many as 100 well bores in the country over the next three years. Their cost is estimated at a minimum of 1,5 billion dollars. Following the first pilot works performed last year by Lane Energy with Conoso Phillips and Exxon Mobil, this and next years may be especially intensive. As “Rz” has learned, Lane Eenergy is planning to begin fracking in the Pomerania to better assess the deposits. BNK Petroleum, who has informed last week about their first successful drilling in the Pomerania, has announced another two operations this half year.

 

Shale gas explorations in the Lublin region are currently performed by American companies: Chevron (with a planned first bore hole in Q4 of the current year) and ExxonMobil. Experts and company representatives agree, that fulfilling the license responsibilities will allow them to assess the deposits’ volumes and drilling potential with great probability, as well as facilitate forecasting of the manufacturing capabilities.

 

“Rz” interviewees admit, that the first bore holes are just a beginning of a long road to determining the true capabilities and to starting the manufacturing process. - These first operations, a full drilling operation with fracking, will allow us to decide if horizontal drilling is worth it – says one of the industry representatives. - Theoretically, we can start manufacturing even without the costly horizontal drilling, but at this stage, there is a question of what to do with the gas we mine.

 

Companies’ representatives are more and more often mentioning that transporting the gas from the deposits to the network, once it can be mined, will be a problem. Pipelines will have to be built, which means additional costs and a dilemma of who should build and finance them. Moreover, licensed companies will have to obtain permits to mine the resource. - Settling and preparing all of the documents, including the deposit development plan and other documentation will take some time - says one of the presidents at a foreign company already searching for gas. - It will take us at least a year and a half to get the mining license. That’s why – according to him – the expectation that an industrial-scale manufacturing will start in six to seven years seems realistic.

 

Another issue, the most important for an investor, is the cost-effectiveness of the mining operation. - Regulated natural gas prices in Poland will surely be detrimental to a wider-scale mining - claim company representatives. -Everyone wants a return on their investments - they add. According to American experts, Poland has an exceptionally high shale gas potential. It obviously cannot compete with the US, who is the world leader in shale gas manufacturing. According to different estimates, Poland may have as much as 1,5 to 3 trillion cubic metres of shale gas. For comparison, Poland’s annual gas demand is around 14 billion cubic metres.
 

Source: Rzeczpospolita B 2011-02-26, by: Agnieszka Łakoma