Poland has between 346 billion cubic meters (bcm) and  768 bcm of shale gas. This is 7 to 15 times less than the Americans’ earlier estimate. The appraisals published yesterday are very cautious.

 

The State Geological Institute (PIG) estimated Poland’s recoverable shale gas reserves at between 346 bcm and 768 bcm. “This is from 2.5 to 5.5 times more than our documented conventional gas reserves (145 bcm – ed.). This, together with the conventional deposits, will cover Poland’s total natural gas requirement for 35-65 years”, says Piotr Woźniak, Vice-minister of the Environment and Chief National Geologist.  

 

The PIG also released shale oil estimates. At between 215 bn and 268 bn tonnes, they are 8.5-10.5 times higher than the conventional reserves documented earlier (over 25 bn tonnes), enough to cover   Poland’s total oil requirement (including from conventional deposits) for 10—12 years. The Institute’s estimates are much lower than the forecasts released last year by the U.S.’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA report said Poland’s recoverable shale gas reserves could be as large as 5.3 bcm, the largest in Europe.

 

Now the PIG has come up with much lower figures, chiefly due to a different methodology used. Generally, the Institute can be said to have adopted much more conservative assumptions than the Americans had. What’s more, the Polish estimates are based on historical data, having been developed taking into account 39 wells drilled before 1990.

 

Even though the Institute’s estimates are well below the earlier forecasts from American institutions, gas exploration companies see them as positive. “This is very good news for the Polish economy and a new quality in Poland’s energy security”, says PKN Orlen President Jacek Krawiec. For him, the downward revision of the earlier estimates came as no surprise.

 

Indeed, from the outset most people in the industry had taken those figures with a grain of salt. “The release of the report and of the new data will not affect PKN Orlen’s shale gas exploration plans. Initial results of the analyses PKN Orlen made following the completion of the first two wells are positive”, says Krawiec. He adds that the group proceeds with exploration work, with new wells scheduled to be drilled this year.

 

Petrolinvest President Bertram Le Guem declared: “Like all concession-holders, we are counting on profit, but as a Polish operator we are anxious for shale gas to enable the reduction of the price of this fuel and of the costs of the entire Polish economy”. Foreign groups, too, are considering expanding their operations in Poland. “It still appears from the PIG-released data that there are vast amounts of gas in Poland.  These estimates do not alter our plans”, announced Katarzyna Terej, a Lane Energy advisor. “The PIG report released today does not alter Chevron’s plans for shale gas exploration in Poland. We proceed with our programme to explore for and appraise the potential of deposits in our concession areas”, stated Chevron’s Katarzyna Bukowska.

 

Source: Rzeczpospolita, 22 March 2012, author: Tomasz Furman

 

Also on this subject in:
Rzeczpospolita, p. 1  “W łupkach jednak mniej gazu” [Shale Formations Found Less Gas-rich]
Rzeczpospolita, p. 2, “Bez gazowego eldorado” [No Gas Eldorado]
Dziennik Gazeta Prawna, p. 1, “Mamy problem: gaz się ulotnił” [We Have a Problem: Our Gas Is Gone]
Dziennik Gazeta Prawna, p. 2, “Za wcześnie, aby płakać nad nieistniejącym gazem” [It’s Early Days Yet to Cry Over Non-existent Gas]
Dziennik Gazeta Prawna, p. 10, “Choć gazu jest mniej, i tak będzie można ograniczyć import” [Gas Reserves Are Smaller, But Imports Can Be Cut Down Nevertheless]
Puls Biznesu,p. 1, “Gazu w łupkach mniej, ale to firm nie zniechęca” [Companies Undaunted by Revised-down Shale Gas Estimates]
Parkiet, p 1, “Gazu łupkowego mniej, niż sądzono” [Shale Gas Reserves Found Below Earlier Estimates]
Gazeta Wyborcza, p 21, “Gaz nam się nieco ulotnił” [Some of Our Gas Seems to Be Gone]
Gazeta Polska Codziennie, p. 8, “Gazu i ropy mamy dużo” [We Have Plenty of Natural Gas and Oil]
Fakt, p. 8, “Łupków wcale nie tak dużo” [No Abundance of Gas-bearing Shale]
Gazeta Wyborcza Opole, p. 2, “Eldorado się skurczyło” [Our Gas Eldorado Has Shrunk]
Super Express, p. 6, “Jednak mniej gazu z łupków” [Shale Gas Reserves Lower Than Expected]